🟣 Will March bring more madness?

Bitcoin ETFs are changing expectations

New month. New opportunities. After a remarkable run to close out the month of February, bitcoin seems to be taking a breather to kick off March.

That’s given some smaller coins room to run.

Axelar (AXL) sliced up almost 80% after Binance listed the token today, before settling back to a 32% gainer by midday in New York.

For the week gone by, Base DEX Aerodrome flew over 400% higher on the week, and 80% so far Friday thanks to a major investment by the Base Ecosystem Fund.

One side effect is a notable juicing of yields on Aerodrome stablecoin liquidity pools on Base.

In DeFi derivatives, dYdX has reclaimed the top spot on trading volumes over Aevo. The former saw over 11% of its circulating supply boosted by a large unlock late Thursday. Token unlocks are generally interpreted as bearish catalysts, but in dYdX’s case it doesn’t seem to have dented its price, which is more or less unchanged this week.

Bitcoin ETF net inflows fell sharply Tuesday, but remained in positive territory. One major ETF powerhouse that has deliberately avoided venturing into crypto is Vanguard.

The imminent departure of Vanguard’s CEO has the peanut gallery making silly inferences that the firm’s anti-bitcoin ETF stance is somehow to blame. Is it possible? Sure, anything’s possible. But is it likely. No.

It will be interesting to see who they pick as his successor and whether he has a track record of views on the subject.

It’s clear the ETF flows have an impact, and Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz thinks it’s quite profound.

“This is probably the first time in the history of bitcoin that we have true price discovery,” thanks to spot bitcoin ETFs, Novogratz told Bloomberg yesterday.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see some correction and some consolidation,” he said, without predicting a time frame.

That’s like the weatherman saying it’ll rain, eventually. But should I take an umbrella today?

— Macauley Peterson (X: @yeluacaM | Farcaster: @Macauley)

Shorts liquidations predominate:

According to Glassnode, the current bull market trend could have legs, based on trends in liquidations data. In contrast to 2021, the data analytics firm is seeing aggressive attempts to short bitcoin despite its clear uptrend, which could fuel further upside.

Bitcoin staking protocol Babylon is one to watch in 2024. This week it announced a “strategic investment” of an undisclosed sum from Binance Labs, and launched the Babylon testnet.

The Cosmos-based chain aims to develop yield opportunities for bitcoin holders who stake their assets on major proof-of-stake chains in a trust-minimized way, using Taproot.

Read more: Bitcoin security for proof-of-stake? Why not, says Babylon

A detailed guide explains how to set up testnet accounts with Keplr and OKX wallets, obtain testnet BBN and sBTC tokens and stake sBTC with Babylon.

The launch was promoted with a Pioneer Pass NFT on the Polygon proof-of-stake chain. However, as of 8:00 am ET, all 100,000 had been claimed, leaving lots of mad would-be testers on the project’s Discord.

As the dominant player, Stride is well-positioned to continue its recent success on the back of an expanding Cosmos LST market, chiefly driven by new token launches and growth in liquid-staked tokens as a percentage of staked tokens.

The Uniswap Foundation has put the idea of a fee switch up in the governance forum, paving the way for an additional taker rate to be imminently turned on. This should result in further upside for UNI, especially on the back of Dencun and Uniswap v4’s launch in Q3 2024.

Why I’m not mad that I spent all of my bitcoin on food, rent and tennis lessons.

Eight state attorney generals warn the SEC’s enforcement actions could “stymie” potential state legislation around crypto.

The insights, views and outlooks presented in the report are not to be taken as financial advice. Blockworks Research analysts are not registered broker/dealers or financial advisors. Blockworks Research analysts may hold assets mentioned in this report, further outlined in the Firm’s Financial Disclosures.