Risk assets caught a bid as the Senate advanced a bipartisan funding package to end the record-long shutdown and Trump floated a $2K tariff dividend, lifting BTC from its $100K bottom. Polymarket now prices 87% odds of resolution by Nov. 15, which would restore critical data flow after two months of jobs/CPI blackouts. Trump's plan faces much slimmer approval odds.

Risk assets caught a bid after the Senate advanced a bipartisan funding package to end the record-long government shutdown. Polymarket odds now show an 87% chance the shutdown ends by Nov. 15, which would restore critical data flow after two straight months of jobs and CPI blackouts. The news was particularly welcome for BTC, which had been struggling around the $100K mark all week and was down -10% before bouncing on the headlines. While the bill still needs House approval and Trump’s signature, markets are taking the procedural progress as the main risk-on catalyst, lifting global equities and futures.

Simultaneously, President Trump floated a $2K “tariff dividend” funded by tariff revenues, though Polymarket traders price just a 21% probability the Supreme Court ultimately upholds his tariff authority — making the stimulus plan’s funding source legally precarious. Markets nonetheless cheered the twin stimuli: The reopening lessens tail risks around air travel, SNAP benefits and federal payrolls for a few months, while any direct payments would be pro-consumption.

Fed policy remains the other key variable: Polymarket now shows 72% odds of a 25 bps December cut and 27% odds of no change, slightly more dovish than the 60-65% priced into rates markets. Still, Friday’s consumer sentiment slumped to 50.3, near three-and-a-half‑year lows, with the shutdown cited as a key driver. 

In crypto, Revenue tokens led gains yesterday (+5.48%), driven by strength in Ethereum Eco (+4.8%) and DeFi (+4.3%), while L1s (+4.8%) also posted solid advances. BTC bounced +2.2% after testing the $100K level, providing a tailwind across sectors. The only laggards were Gaming (-2.7%) and Modular Infrastructure (-2.6%), which saw profit-taking after recent outperformance.

— Shaunda

On Friday's livestream, we were joined by Matt and Aryan from CMT Digital:

• We explored the Stream DeFi collapse, where accusations emerged that a "Little Engine" prop trader misappropriated user funds to purchase personal property, creating a $93 million deficit through a rehypothecation loop that leveraged $2 million in stablecoins into $14.5 million of xUSD exposure across Avalanche and multiple lending protocols.

• We examined structural vulnerabilities in modular lending protocols like Euler and Morpho, noting proposed solutions including allow lists with exposure caps, time-locked observation windows, liquidity-aware oracles with band triggers and mandatory market badges to distinguish exogenous stables from recursive yield strategies.

• We analyzed Solana's DEX aggregator landscape, where Jupiter's dominance faced competition from OKX, DFlow, and Titan since May 2025, with 40-50% of onchain volume comprising cyclic arbitrage (atomic USDC→USDC trades) and Titan using outdated binaries to simulate competitor quotes for marketing.

• We discussed prediction markets as risk hedging tools, referencing Arbitrum's failed Y2K experiment, and evaluated whether HIP3 perpetuals could effectively hedge protocol failures given challenges with delta neutrality and sufficient liquidity.

• We noted Keone's governance decision that locked Monad tokens would not accrue staking rewards, preempting the Celestia-style controversy where VCs captured 12% yields on locked tokens through validator commissions while retail faced dilution.

Find the full livestream on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts and X.

This summary was generated with assistance from AI tooling.

Charts of the week

Plasma DeFi continues to struggle with outflows. The week of Nov. 3-7 saw -$2.5 billion exit the ecosystem, slightly higher than the previous week's -$2.3 billion.

As a result, stablecoin supply on Plasma has collapsed from a $6.35 billion peak to just $1.63 billion (74% decline). The fact this is happening despite ongoing incentive spend of 977K XPL per day (18% annual inflation on circulating supply) makes the trend even more concerning. Despite these incentives going toward platforms like Aave to subsidize USDT lending rates to 8.5% (3.54% reward + 4.99% intrinsic), Plasma's headline USDT lending rates have fallen roughly inline with the broader stablecoin landscape (SyrupUSDC, USDe, etc).

On Solana, Meteora continued to post robust revenue numbers, generating $10.4 million in October. While memecoin infrastructure is considered highly cyclical by investors, therefore deserving of discounted valuations, Meteora's non-memecoin revenue hit an all-time high of $1.38 million in October, nearly doubling September's $751K. Memecoins still dominate overall revenue due to their high take rate: Meteora earns 0.16% on memecoin swaps vs. 0.005% on stablecoin swaps, meaning the protocol needs $32 of volume from majors to match $1 of memecoin revenue.

This creates a strong financial profile: At $173 million circulating market cap and $360 million FDV, the protocol trades at roughly 1.5x P/S on circulating supply and 3x on FDV. However, the lack of token utility and upcoming unlocks remain key overhangs for investor appetite. Investors should mark Dec. 10 on their calendars, as this is Meteora's landmark event that might announce some utility for the token.

Finally, when looking at ETF flows, Solana stands out as the only asset with consistent inflows in the previous week. While volumes decreased from the standout Oct. 27 to Nov. 2 period ($199 million), Solana showed significant strength when adjusting for market cap: ETF flows through October have accumulated 0.263% of supply, vs. BTC's 0.133% and ETH's 0.0818%.

— Shaunda