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- đď¸ Shifting sands of the market
đď¸ Shifting sands of the market
Sentiment, ETF flows, macro uncertainty

Bitcoin hovers around its 200-day moving average, with ETF flows stabilizing after a record outflow-driven correction. ETHâs price action is increasingly tied to sentiment, while macro forces dominate risk appetite. Meanwhile, TradFiâs appetite for digital assets is surging, as data presented by Meltem Demirors at DAS reveals CeFi now rivals DeFi in revenue generation.

CeFi vs. DeFi:
Source: Meltem Demirors
TradFi is no longer âcomingâ to crypto. Itâs already here, and itâs eating very well. While crypto token holders and VCs are busy debating where value could accrue (is it the protocol? The wallet? The apps?), it appears TradFi is also taking a huge piece of the pie. That was the key argument of Crucible Capitalâs Meltem Demirorsâ thesis at the Blockworksâ Digital Assets Summit.
Based on Demirorsâ data, projected 2025 revenue from centralized crypto companies is $9.1 billion (as measured by USDT + USDC net interest margins and ETF fees), just slightly ahead of the same projection for DeFiâs most successful revenue-generating protocols, at $9 billion.
â Donovan Choy
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Crypto market update
The crypto market is at an interesting crossroads. While showing some signs of bottoming 10 days ago near $77,000, BTC is in a period of high correlation with US markets, which are rolling over following this weekâs FOMC meeting. Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen ETF flows stabilize alongside declining volatility, allowing macro forces to take center stage.
The past month saw record ETF outflows, coinciding with a -22% dip in BTC price. Nick at Ecoinometrics notes that every significant ETF inflow or outflow cycle has correlated with major price swings:
The initial ETF launch drove BTC from $40k to $70k.
A second wave of inflows in late 2024 pushed BTC to $110k.
The recent outflow wave aligned with BTCâs -22% correction.
Now, ETF flows are leveling out, which could indicate a new accumulation phase if inflows return. "If flows turn positive in the coming weeks, it could mark the beginning of a new accumulation phase by professional investors," Ecoinometrics suggests.
Historically, Bitcoin halvings were the dominant narrative shaping price action. But the current cycle is breaking from precedent, Nick argues. Bitcoin is well below its historical post-halving growth trajectories, suggesting that supply-side factors are no longer the primary driver of price. Instead, institutional flows and macroeconomic conditions are playing a far greater role.
Analysis out Friday from FalconXâs David Lawant highlights how ETHâs price correlates more with sentiment, while SOLâs price is driven by mindshare, based on Kaito sentiment data.
For SOL, âchanges in mindshare can explain up to 36% of price variance,â and using a more sophisticated model, this jumps to 46%, Lawant wrote.
For ETH, the most significant statistical predictor is sentiment, not mindshare, with a causality test showing that sentiment can help predict future ETH price action. In other words, Ethereumâs price is more sensitive to narrative shifts.
Uncertainty remains
The Federal Reserve maintained its rate projections, giving risk assets a temporary reprieve, but not enough to reverse the crypto marketâs downward momentum from the late-February breakdown below the 91,000 range.
Inflation risks remain, even as Fed Chair Powell revived the infamous âtransitoryâ adjective to describe policymakersâ expectations when confronting tariff-induced inflation. The Fed has slowed measures of quantitative tightening, but that shouldnât be mistaken for quantitative easing. Any shift in the stance toward a more hawkish outlook could hit crypto liquidity.
The bottom line is, after an anemic bounce attempt, BTC looks headed to chop around its 200-day moving average a bit longer before picking a direction and dragging the rest of the crypto market with it. Institutional flows may take a front seat going forward as macro conditions dictate risk appetite.
One bright spot in the news coming out of Blockworksâ Digital Asset Summit is that sentiment at TradFi institutions is much better than what we see in the crypto-native trenches â an unusual dichotomy. Thatâs due to the many real improvements on the regulatory front, ranging from the repeal of SAB 121, to late breaking news of Tornado Cash being removed from OFAC's SDN list â which may bode well for the future mainstreaming of DeFi protocols generally.

Total onchain stablecoin supply has continued to climb to all time-highs of $225.9 billion, about 5.3% over Februaryâs supply, based on Artemis data.
Here is the state of benchmark stablecoin yields and more:
â Donovan Choy
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