- Blockworks Research
- Posts
- 🟣 Higher for longer
🟣 Higher for longer
$58k resistance? What resistance?
Bitcoin cycle analysts around the world have been uttering four dangerous words of late:
“This time is different.”
With a $13k move up from $51k just two days ago, bitcoin momentarily tapped $64k and is getting remarkably close to its November 2021 all-time high (not counting inflation) of $69k.
That’s unusual with still just under 2 months to go until the halving. Prior cycles have seen pre-halving rallies, but also 30% draw-downs, which have not materialized yet.
The ferocity of this move has laser eyes cheering, Jim Cramer shaking his head, and armchair analysts scratching their heads.
Yes, bitcoin ETF flows have been stunning — averaging $548 million per day over the past two days — how long can the orange coin keep this up?
Heading into midday, a massive liquidation-inducing hourly candle has both shorts and longs catching their breath.
Speaking of degenerate derivatives trading, Aevo is now the top perp dex by volume, edging past dYdX. That has propelled the RBN token — which will be convertible for AEVO once it launches — up more than 16% today.
Aevo has been incentivizing trading by way of a lottery-style bonus to its own internal tracking of trading volume, which will presumably translate into an airdrop of some kind. If artificially juicing volume is their goal, it looks like it’s working.
Open interest at all-time highs.
BTC price vs Aggregated open interest, weekly time frame; Source: coinalyze
Price may not quite be there yet, but aggregated open interest — as tracked by Coinalyze — hit never-before-seen numbers north of $42 billion today.
That’s cooled off some thanks to the noon ET leverage washout, but still looks like it will break peak 2021 bull cycle high by end of day.
Funding rates are also through the roof. The last two times BTC futures funding was this positive, there was a 15% correction within a week.
As the dominant player, Stride is well-positioned to continue its recent success on the back of an expanding Cosmos LST market, chiefly driven by new token launches and growth in liquid-staked tokens as a percentage of staked tokens.
The Uniswap Foundation has put the idea of a fee switch up in the governance forum, paving the way for an additional taker rate to be imminently turned on. This should result in further upside for UNI, especially on the back of Dencun and Uniswap v4’s launch in Q3 2024.
In reality, many of the oft-touted uses for bringing blockchain and AI together aren’t actually all that useful.
The latest total broke the previous daily net inflow high of $493 million set on Feb. 13
  |   |
The insights, views and outlooks presented in the report are not to be taken as financial advice. Blockworks Research analysts are not registered broker/dealers or financial advisors. Blockworks Research analysts may hold assets mentioned in this report, further outlined in the Firm’s Financial Disclosures.
