Hi all, and happy Thursday!

BTC, ETH, and SOL are trading well into the long weekend, with Strategy’s Digital Credit Capital Framework pulling precisely the levers needed to calm recent concerns.  

GPU compute has become a traded commodity almost overnight, but the real battle is shifting from who lists the contracts to who controls physical delivery.

Enjoy!

Over the past week, majors have shown strength, with BTC up 3%, ETH up 5.3%, and SOL up 15% heading into the holiday weekend. The constructive price action of the majors is notable as it comes amidst ongoing weakness and outflows from the ETFs.

Crypto equities lead the board on the weekly, with the sector up 9.1%. Leaders here include FIGR, GEMI, HOOD, COIN, and BLSH. The Solana Ecosystem shows similar strength as the trenches were revived, with JTO and RAY trading up 12.5% and 9.7%, respectively. L2s are the top losers of the week, with WLD and MNT accounting for most of that downside, trading 32% and 16% lower.

Strategy’s corporate actions, announced on Monday, implemented forward guidance precisely in line with what the market needed to see. The framework guided toward the use of 5 levers to support the prices of preferreds:

1. A USD Reserve Policy, requiring that the company hold the cash reserves required to cover a minimum of 12 months of dividend payments or interest expense.

2. An increase in the STRC dividend to 12%, payable semi-monthly. 

3. A repurchase program for up to $1B in repurchases of preferred stock.

4. A repurchase program for up to $1B in MSTR common stock.

5. A “BTC Monetization Program,” approving the sale of BTC to fund the USD reserve, preferred repurchases, and common repurchases.

At large, the actions taken show Strategy is willing to sell BTC to defend STRC, and price action since the announcement has supported this. Both MSTR and STRC have rallied significantly since Monday, outperforming BTC. BTC, as well, is trading in the green since this news. 

While these policy levers don’t necessarily cure the broader concerns around MSTR’s viability, they certainly do treat them. These actions buy MSTR time and assuage many of the concerns that were pressuring BTC, MSTR, and STRC over the recent weeks. 

— Luke

The GPU futures race

Three derivatives venues listed H100 futures within 16 days this past May. CME launched May 12 on Silicon Data's index, ICE followed May 19 on Ornn's transaction-printed Compute Price Index, and Architect opened its American Innovation Exchange May 28 with Compute Desk data behind it. At least six ETF issuers filed products against those benchmarks before a single contract cleared. The pace reflects where institutional attention has moved. The conditions that made it possible are simpler.

H100 one-year contract rates bottomed near $1.70/hr in October 2025 and climbed to roughly $2.65/hr by March 2026, even as spot H100 fell ~40% off its May peak to around $2.40/hr. Term rates rising as spot softens is the classic signal that two-sided hedging demand has formed. Producers fear inventory clearing below cost. Inference platforms fear costs rising. AWS confirmed the regime today by raising EC2 reserved rates 20% effective July 1 across every accelerator, moving H100 from $4.33/hr to $5.19/hr and B300 from $11.70/hr to $14.04/hr. A hyperscaler repricing reserved capacity upward into a Blackwell ramp, rather than discounting it into oversupply, is the clearest print the market has.

The structural problem with every venue above is that each settles cash against an offchain index. Architect has committed to building an exchange-for-physical network alongside Compute Desk, an acknowledgment that cash settlement alone does not force price convergence. That delivery gap is where decentralized compute networks carry a real claim. Akash, io.net, and Render aggregate fragmented GPU supply across operators and regions into something rentable onchain.

DePIN Pulse lists ~2.6K H200s and ~800 B200s across operators, with onchain H100 clearing near $1/GPU-hour, the commodity tier most current benchmark contracts reference, while Blackwell supply remains too thin and premium-priced to serve as reliable physical settlement at that spec. These networks are the natural exchange-for-physical rail, converting a futures position into delivered capacity without a bilateral relationship for each hub.

Crypto is already on the paper side. Lighter lists an H100 perp on Ornn data, Hyperliquid carries H100 markets through HIP-3 deployers, and MNX is launching on MegaETH in Q3 2026 with H100 rental perps. These settled against the same offchain indexes as the DCMs before any regulated contract cleared review. Listing speed is not the durable advantage; closing the delivery gap is.

That distinction matters for the investment read. The liquid DePIN compute sector trades at ~$7.5B market cap against ~$80M in onchain ARR, with Akash at 68x trailing revenue and Render at 630x, valuations price a delivery-layer claim the data does not yet support. Durable value in this market accrues to whoever owns the index and the DCM license, and most of those positions sit in private markets today.

Full analysis goes live next week.

— Nick

Touching Grass

Lattice Capital's Mike Zajko published a pre-call breakdown of GRASS ahead of the protocol's July 7 token holder call, arguing that Q4 2025 revenue of roughly $13M ($50M+ ARR), with growth accelerating from 56% to 197% QoQ, positions the network for a re-rate. GRASS runs 8M nodes processing 1-4 petabytes of web data daily, supplying a structured multimodal corpus to frontier AI labs at a time when labs spend an estimated $15B annually on data, with Bright Data crossing $300M ARR in 2025 and targeting $400M in 2026. Revenue flows contractually through Grass DataCo to the Foundation rather than Wynd Labs, verified under NDA by both Messari and Grayscale, with token value capture beyond a $350K Q4 buyback (now on hold) remaining the central open question heading into next week’s call.

World Launches as the Solana Prediction Market

World launched today as Solana's native, fully onchain prediction market, going live inside Phantom with Chainlink Data Streams and the Chainlink Runtime Environment as its oracle infrastructure. Every position and settlement occurs onchain via CASH, opening with Bitcoin price markets and 2026 FIFA World Cup slates, with Chainlink's automated resolution replacing the human-controlled systems that legacy prediction markets have relied on. Phantom's 20M-plus user base provides immediate distribution without a separate app download, and the team describes the Phantom frontend as the first of multiple distribution partnerships activating through July.