Figure’s IPO and Circle’s (potential) $200M setback

Happy Friday! It has been a fantastic week for crypto markets, and while I hope everyone touches some grass this weekend, below are some good reads covering various topics, including Figure’s IPO, Hyperliquid’s USDH ticker battle, onchain price discovery and more.

HYPE Stablecoins, TCG Meta, New DATCOs | Roundtable

Takeaways from Monday’s 0xResearch livestream roundtable:

• Hyperliquid will allow multiple quote assets and is auctioning the “USDH” ticker to third-party issuers via a validator vote, rather than launching its own stable in-house. About 8% of USDC’s supply sits on Hyperliquid ($5.6 billion). With ~4% Treasury yields, that’s over $200 million per year not accruing to the ecosystem and entirely captured by Circle and Coinbase.

• The USDH debate has centered around institution- vs. native-team issuance and ecosystem alignment. Paxos, Native Markets, Ethena, Frax and others are outbidding each other ahead of a Sept. 14 validator governance vote that will determine who gets to have the ticker, with proposals offering aggressive revenue-sharing agreements (up to 100%). A key takeaway is that the USDH ticker is nice to have but not decisive; both Paxos and Native Markets say they’ll ship regardless of winning the ticker.

• Stablecoins look interchangeable on the surface, but the backend matters. Users mainly optimize for yield and composability today, treating USDC/USDT and other stablecoins as perfect substitutes. Longer-term differentiation will hinge on custodians, reserve composition (e.g., T-bills vs. delta-neutral strategies), disclosures and proof-of-reserves quality.

• The TCG “cards onchain” trend is real. Off-chain demand is booming (Target expects ~$1 billion in trading-card revenue; eBay cites triple-digit Pokémon sales growth), and onchain platforms (Collector Crypt, Phygitals, Courtyard) are scaling with gacha mechanics and points campaigns. The model clips margins by sourcing cards below market and repurchasing them at a discount, but net margins are thin (~20% fee margin dropping to ~6% after inventory costs), so winners must secure rare supply cheaply and add utility beyond ripping packs.

• Chain-enshrined stables are becoming a source of infrastructure revenue. MegaETH and Ethena announced USDM, backed by T-bill yield, to subsidize gas and fund the chain, a pattern the team frames as bullish for MegaETH and for DeFi composability, with clear winners such as Pendle and Aave. The bigger theme: L1s/L2s are hunting stablecoin yield to diversify away from pure transaction fees, further pressuring incumbent issuers’ ability to keep that interest income.

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This summary was generated with assistance from AI tooling.

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1. Tokenize, Trade, Expand: The Figure Thesis

Figure Technology (FIGR) raised $788 million in an IPO on Wednesday. Founded by former SoFi CEO Mike Cagney, Figure has emerged as a leader in onchain RWAs, with ~$17.5 billion publicly tokenized. The platform’s ecosystem volume is growing ~40% YoY as it expands beyond HELOCs into student loans, DSCR loans, unsecured loans, bankruptcy claims and more. Operationally, Figure cuts average loan production cost by ~93% and compresses median funding time from ~42 days to ~10, creating a durable speed-and-cost advantage. Read more

2. Stablecoin giants vie for USDH ticker — Hyperliquid wins no matter what

Galaxy Research published a report analyzing Hyperliquid’s USDH ticker governance vote. The report explains that with ~$5.6 billion worth of USDC on Hyperliquid and ~$220 million in annual yield flowing to Circle/Coinbase, a native USDH, could recapture value and reduce bridged-USDC risk. The piece compares the proposals from Ethena, Sky, Paxos, Agora, Frax, OpenEden, Bastion and Native Markets, noting that validators will vote on Sept. 14 after a rapid submission window. It concludes that the winner will gain brand legitimacy, not guaranteed dominance, and issuers’ high yield-sharing pledges mean Hyperliquid “wins” regardless of outcome. Read more

3. From backrooms to builder codes

Compound’s smac and Asula Lab’s krane published a blog post arguing for a shift from opaque, CEX-driven token launches (“backroom” deals) to transparent onchain systems powered by “builder codes.” They compare equity vs. token lifecycles, contending CEX listing and Market Maker arrangements impose hidden taxes and short-termism. As a path forward, they advocate for onchain capital formation: orderly ICOs for products with product-market fit, transparent onchain cap tables and raises, auditable market making vaults (e.g., HIP-2), and distribution via builder codes. The PUMP launch on Solana and its pre-market trading on Hyperliquid are cited as proof of true onchain price discovery. Read more

4. Brier Scores vs. Edge

Felipe Montealegre from Theia published an article arguing that Brier scores measure calibration, not investment edge, so optimizing for low Brier can hurt portfolio returns. The piece ties “edge” to the Kelly Criterion’s expected-log-growth framework: Portfolios compound in proportion to edge, which is largely orthogonal to Brier. Monte Carlo simulations show calibration-first strategies underperform, while sizing via fractional Kelly better aligns forecasts with growth. He recommends evaluating forecasting and trading systems with metrics aligned to expected log-growth/edge rather than pure calibration. Read more

5. Tick sizes and market quality

The SEC Division of Economic and Risk Analysis published a paper examining how tick size changes affect market quality for all but tick constrained stocks. Using comprehensive depth of book data from MIDAS, the authors examine both the imposition and conclusion of the Tick Size Pilot (TSP). The results support characterizing a tick size change as a tradeoff between allowing markets to establish equilibrium prices (pricing fidelity) and complexity/undercutting concerns. The analysis suggests that TSP stocks with fewer than two (more than 15) ticks intra spread generally experience an improvement in liquidity when the tick size is reduced (increased). At large, some of the lessons in this paper can also be used to understand the market structure under prop AMMs. Read more