Hi all, happy Wednesday! Today we unpack BTC’s outperformance vs. traditional assets, Hyperliquid's commodity perp explosion, and AI’s rotation amid fresh hype.

Over the last week, BTC (+6.3%) has been one of the strongest performers among macro assets. This comes as gold (−4.1%) and equities (NASDAQ −0.22%) have lagged, while crypto equities (+5.6%) are seeing some light — particularly 2025 crypto IPOs (+11.1%) and even miners (+1.2%). 

This is happening while BTC ETFs hit a fifth consecutive day of positive net inflows. In fact, 15 out of the last 17 days have seen net inflows. If this keeps up, March will be a net positive month, breaking the four-month streak of consecutive outflows since November. This is leaving many, myself included, to wonder if BTC has already bottomed.

Zooming in on crypto assets, it’s been all green over the last week, with AI (+37%) and Memes (+21.7%) leading the charge. Higher-beta crypto assets tend to lead during recoveries, so this is a welcome sign, though speculative coins are volatile in nature, and more data points are needed to filter the signal from the noise.

We see below that every AI token in our index is positive over the last week, with FET (+56.4%) the biggest winner. This broad movement is likely from an AI-crypto narrative rotation triggered by fresh AI hype (notably Nvidia’s GTC narrative and more capable desktop-automation assistants), plus a clean technical breakout from the majors. However, within crypto AI, some indicators (like RSI) are showing overbought, pointing to higher odds of a near‑term cool‑off or chop.

BTC strength, positive ETF flows (across multiple digital assets), and higher-beta bounces are bullish signals for crypto’s recovery phase, suggesting macro bottoms may be in. However, only resistance has been tested recently, while key supports need monitoring before momentum truly re-enters. 

— Marc

Commodity perps

The rise of commodity and index perps on Hyperliquid has been notable over the past three months. In December, XYZ100 was the only non-crypto asset in the monthly top 10. By January, silver, gold, and XYZ100 were all there. In February, the third-most traded asset on Hyperliquid was silver (at $18B), ahead of SOL and just behind BTC and ETH. 

Moving forward to March: Now crude oil (CL), silver, XYZ100, Brent oil, gold, and USA500 are all in the monthly top 10, meaning non-crypto assets now occupy 6 of the 10 spots, and commodities occupy 4 of the top 10. Over the past week, CL has been the third-most traded market on Hyperliquid.

CL appeared in the top 10 for the first time in the first week of March, at rank 6 with ~1.7B in weekly volume, about 3.6% of top 10 volume that week. It then surged in the second week of March to rank 2, overtaking ETH with ~6.7B in volume. For March overall (month to date), CL sits at rank 3 with ~9.5B in volume, behind only BTC and ETH.

Silver first entered the weekly top 10 in the second week of January, at rank 6 with ~714M in volume. By the fourth week of January it had jumped to rank 3 with ~7.9B, overtaking SOL and HYPE. It held rank 3 through the first week of February (~9.6B) and has remained in the top 10 every week since. In February, silver was the third-most traded asset overall at ~17.6B, ahead of SOL (~11.6B) and HYPE (~8.9B). In March so far it has stayed in the top 10 weekly but at somewhat lower levels (ranging from ~460M to ~4.3B per week), sitting at rank 4 for the month with ~6.5B.

When markets close, Hyperliquid is the only place to hedge or take directional positions on commodities, which allows it to facilitate better price discovery for commodity perps, though there are still some kinks with max price moves over weekends and large funding rates on HIP-3 perps. 

Between Feb. 28 and March 1st, Hyperliquid priced in most of the CME gap across key commodities:

• Gold’s CME gap was +$116.30 (+2.22%), with Hyperliquid overshooting slightly at 118.7% of the move. 

• Oil (WTI) had a CME gap of +$4.57 (+6.79%), with Hyperliquid capturing 107.4%. 

• Silver’s CME gap was +$3.94 (+4.37%), and Hyperliquid priced at 99.3%.

— Boccaccio

1. Regulation Crypto Assets: A Token Safe Harbor

SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ March 2026 remarks signal a continued shift toward a more rules-based, innovation-friendly US crypto framework. He emphasizes the need to replace “regulation by enforcement” with clear, tailored guidance for digital assets. 

Atkins reiterated plans to formalize a token taxonomy grounded in the Howey test, introduce fit-for-purpose disclosures and exemptions (including potential “innovation” safe harbors), and better distinguish between securities and non-securities in crypto markets. He also stressed closer coordination with the CFTC and Congress to reduce overlapping oversight and provide regulatory certainty, arguing that clearer rules are essential to keep innovation and capital formation in the US while still upholding investor protection.

2. Mastercard to acquire BVNK

Mastercard is acquiring stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK for up to $1.8B to accelerate its push into onchain payments and bridge traditional fiat rails with blockchain-based systems. The deal reflects growing institutional demand for stablecoins and tokenized money, positioning Mastercard to enable new use cases across cross-border payments, remittances, and B2B flows while maintaining its existing compliance and security standards. 

By integrating BVNK’s multi-chain infrastructure (already operating across 130+ countries), Mastercard aims to create interoperable, asset-agnostic payment rails that support both fiat and digital currencies, signaling a broader shift toward programmable, blockchain-based financial infrastructure as adoption scales.

DAS NYC's lineup is bringing the biggest names in finance to the stage.

Don't miss the institutional gathering of the year — this March 24−26.