Risk appetite returned last week as stronger AI earnings, renewed ETF inflows, and a broad rebound in high-beta assets pushed markets higher. Tech led the move, BTC followed closely, and crypto sectors rallied almost across the board, with positioning-heavy names seeing the sharpest rebounds. This week, the focus shifts from the recovery itself to whether it can hold, with CPI, continued AI demand, and Cerebras’ upcoming IPO set to test how much confidence investors are willing to put back into the trade.

Clear risk-on sentiment returned last week with BTC and tech equities rallying sharply higher. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 gained 4.9% and 1.8%, respectively, while BTC closely followed with gains of 4.4%. Gold also moved higher, ending the week up 1.7%.

A key driver behind the move was AMD’s strong earnings report, which helped ease fears around an AI bubble, at least for now. The chipmaker reported Q1 revenue of $10.25B, up 38% year over year, alongside adjusted EPS of $1.37 versus consensus expectations of $1.29. More importantly, management’s Q2 2026 guidance came in ahead of expectations, reinforcing the view that AI infrastructure demand remains strong. 

The report sparked a broad rally across semiconductor names, with the SOXX semiconductor ETF climbing 11% on the week and now up 65.9% YTD. The move also reignited risk appetite across crypto markets. 

Sector performance was broadly positive, with every sector except Crypto Equities ending the week in the green. Modular led the pack, posting gains of 29%. 

While all constituents contributed positively, TIA was the primary driver, surging 29% on the week and accounting for 65% of the index. The move appears largely positioning driven, with heavily shorted names rebounding aggressively during the broader market rally. Fundamentally, Celestia’s network REV from data availability has improved around 50% since the start of the year, though absolute revenue levels remain modest at roughly $50 daily. 

ETF flows also turned constructive again last week. BTC and ETH ETFs recorded inflows of $1.5B and $171M, respectively, reversing the weakness seen in the prior week and signaling improving institutional appetite alongside the broader rebound. 

Looking ahead, markets will continue to focus heavily on AI demand and macro data. AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems is set for its highly anticipated IPO this week, targeting a valuation that could raise up to $3.5B, making it an important test of investor appetite for AI and data center exposure. Alongside that, upcoming CPI data will be closely watched as markets reassess the path of inflation and rate cut expectations for the year ahead. 

— Kunal

Pre-IPO Perpetuals

TradeXYZ’s newest product turns pre-IPO valuation into a 24/7 tradable market. The product is called a Pre-IPO Perpetual, or IPOP. Methodologically, these are cash-settled perpetual derivatives that reference the anticipated public equity price of a private company expected to list. They are not shares, IPO allocations, tokenized equity, or claims on the issuer, so holders do not receive ownership, dividends, voting rights, or primary-market allocation rights. The exposure is purely synthetic: traders are taking long or short price exposure to where the company’s public equity may trade once it lists.

Before the IPO, the IPOP trades as a 24/7 synthetic market around the expected public share price. The market runs through Trade[XYZ]’s HIP-3 deployment on Hyperliquid, with matching, funding, liquidations, and settlement handled through HyperCore. If the company lists and there is enough external market data, the contract is expected to convert into a standard externally priced equity perpetual, with positions continuing into the listed market structure on Hyperliquid. In this sense, Trade[XYZ]’s IPOPs are analogous to Hyperliquid’s Hyperps, offering pre-token-style exposure for large upcoming assets.

The first Trade[XYZ] IPOP listing is Cerebras Systems (CBRS). At the current CBRS mark of $283.99, the contract implies roughly $79.4B of fully diluted equity value using an estimated 279.5M share count. The market has traded $4.6M of 24h notional volume.

Interestingly, the market is placing a high premium on CBRS ahead of its expected May 13 IPO pricing, with shares expected to begin trading on Nasdaq on May 14 under the ticker CBRS. The original IPO range was $115 to $125, but Reuters reported that Cerebras is now planning to raise the range to $150 to $160 after demand reportedly exceeded the available share count by more than 20x. Even against the revised $160 high-end range, the current xyz:CBRS mark of $283.99 implies a roughly 77% premium, meaning the pre-IPO perp market is pricing materially more upside than the formal bookbuild.

With the market converting to an oracle-referenced perpetual once CBRS begins trading publicly, the key question is whether Trade[XYZ] is again front-running TradFi price discovery by creating a live market where none previously existed, or whether onchain traders are simply paying an access premium for exposure they could not otherwise get before the IPO. The answer should become visible quickly.

— Shaunda 

1. Stablecoins, the GENIUS Act, and the Evolving Structure of Dollar Finance

Galaxy Research argues that the GENIUS Act could strengthen the US dollar system rather than destabilize it by turning stablecoins into a structurally embedded source of demand for short-dated Treasuries and imported foreign capital. The paper finds that while some domestic bank deposits will migrate into stablecoin reserves, most growth is likely to come from offshore demand, creating a net positive effect on US credit creation, Treasury financing flexibility, and global dollar adoption. 

The broader implication is that stablecoins may compress bank margins and pressure weaker foreign banking systems but ultimately reinforce US financial dominance by making dollar access, savings, and settlement easier to use globally. 

2. Pear Protocol Pair & Basket Trading Infrastructure.

Pear Protocol is a non-custodial pair and basket trading layer that lets users execute multi-leg relative-value trades across venues like Hyperliquid and SYMM from one interface. It has processed roughly $1.45B to $1.47B in cumulative volume across 6,646 active wallets, with volume split almost evenly between Hyperliquid and SYMM, but monetization remains thin: Q1 revenue was $143K against $315K of costs. The product solves a real execution problem, but the open question is whether Pear can capture enough value from the activity it routes.